Channel Islands Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXUS66 KLOX 231757 AAA
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
957 AM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

updated aviation discussion

.SYNOPSIS...23/154 AM.

Periods of light rain are likely through today, followed by
mostly dry conditions south of Point Conception on Sunday. Monday
and Tuesday, the region will see on and off rain. Rainfall totals
are expected to be fairly minimal, especially for Los Angeles
County. Then dry conditions are favored for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...23/938 AM.

***UPDATE***

Forecast tracking well this morning with a weakening but still
organized band of light showers along and ahead of a cold front
sliding east through the region through this evening. San Luis
Obispo and western Santa Barbara Counties were in a relative lull
in shower activity behind the front, but a pocket of shallow
moisture and instability will move by into the region by this
afternoon, supporting a return of off and on shower activity.

The focus of today will be looking into the next round or rounds
of rainfall across the region for at least the first half of next
week.

***From Previous Discussion***

A period of cool and unsettled weather is upcoming for the region,
lasting into mid next week. Powerful mid-latitude cyclones
rotating off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will transport
moisture into the region in a couple of pulses. The first period
of rain will last through today. The second event will start
Sunday and extend through at least Tuesday.

The first rain event is underway, as an extensive cold front has
swept into the region. Light rain has been falling overnight for
western San Luis Obispo County. Totals thus far mostly been under
a quarter of an inch, except for over 2 inches along the Santa
Lucia Mountains, where the typical terrain enhancement has
dramatically increased accumulation totals. Additionally, gusty
southeast winds will last into early this morning for portions of
San Luis Obispo County.

The band of rain will travel south this morning, sliding down the
Central Coast and reaching Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
by mid-morning and LA County around noon. A few hours of light
rain is expected with this storm. Minimal rain totals are
anticipated with few impacts other than wet roads and reduced
visibilities. For San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties,
around 0.25-0.75 inches, except for around 2 inches for the Santa
Lucia Mountains. Los Angles and Ventura Counties can expect up to
around 0.25 inches, with much of LA County seeing under 0.10
inches.

The next rain event will take on the features of a weak
atmospheric river, with zonal flow aloft allowing for a stream of
moisture transport. Thus this event will offer a more extended
period off on- and- off rain Monday and Tuesday across the region.
Shower chances will linger on Sunday for San Luis Obispo and
Santa Barbara Counties, however for LA/Ventura Counties conditions
are likely to be dry. Rain will start to pick up for the northern
counties Sunday night, with chances for rain reaching LA County by
Monday. Accumulation totals are still expected to be minimal with
this second event. LA County is likely to see widespread
0.10-0.30 inches, and Ventura County will see up to around 0.5
inches. For SLO/SBA Counties, higher accumulations are expected up
to around an inch for the low levels. The southerly flow
component with this storm will allow for enhanced totals for
south- facing slopes, with up to 4 inches possible for the Santa
Ynez and Santa Lucia. Impacts are still expected to be minimal for
this event, as rain rates are well below flooding thresholds, and
there are no significant snow or thunderstorm concerns. However
there is a slight (10 percent) chance of rain totals over
performing and/or localized flooding impacts with this event, in
particular for SLO and SBA Counties.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...23/331 AM.

Tuesday will be another day of on-and-off rain for the region, as
previously mentioned. By Wednesay, only slight chances of rain
will linger, with mostly dry conditions expected. A weak ridge is
favored to develop late next week, leading to a warming trend
into the weekend. Temperatures are likely to be within a few
degrees of normal by Friday. There also a growing potential for
light- to- moderate offshore flow for Thanksgiving Day into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1756Z.

At 1722Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based around 1500
feet. The top of the inversion was 2600 feet with a temperature
of 13 degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. High confidence
in light rain for many airfields especially KSBA south through
early this afternoon, but only moderate confidence in timing of
rain which could be +/- 1-2 hours of current forecast. There is
also moderate confidence in the timing of flight category changes
(could be +/- 1-3 hours of current forecasts).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes and timing of light rain could be +/- 1-2 hours of
current forecasts. There is a 20% chance of an easterly wind
component of 6-8 knots in the 18Z-21Z time frame.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Timing of flight category
changes and timing of light rain could be +/- 1-2 hours of current
forecasts.

&&

.MARINE...23/829 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas
remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Sunday
night and Monday morning, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level
winds across PZZ670/676. From Monday afternoon through Wednesday,
high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Wednesday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence in
current forecast. Today through Wednesday, winds and seas are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/RM
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...RAT/Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox